HEADLINE: WHO: Swine flu pandemic has begun, 1st in 41 years
SUMMARY: The World Health Organization declared a swine flu pandemic Thursday — the first global flu epidemic in 41 years — as infections in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere climbed to nearly 30,000 cases. WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan said the "world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century. The virus is now unstoppable. However, we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe and fatal infections. The WHO said 74 countries had reported 28,774 cases of swine flu, including 144 deaths. Many health experts said the world has been in a pandemic for weeks but WHO became bogged down by politics.
STORY LINK: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/un_un_swine_flu
HEADLINE: How a Mild Virus Might Turn Vicious
SUMMARY: The genetic structure of the swine flu strain is being examined carefully by scientists globally. The virus currently lacks several genes believed to increase the lethality, but experts warn that mutation is an unpredictable process.
STORY LINK: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/09/health/09flu.html?_r=2&ref=health
ANALYSIS: This week marked the formal declaration of a swine-origin H1N1 influenza pandemic and continued speculation on the virus’ future. The former news story recognizes the virus’ worldwide progression while the latter reflects its potential adaptability.
The WHO pandemic classification is in response to the global presence of the disease, specifically “community-level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5.” Phase 5 criteria include human-to-human or animal-to-human transmission and presence in at least two countries in one WHO region. Simply stated, declaration of a pandemic means the disease can be spread among humans and is present globally. It does not offer insight as to the virulence or the danger of the virus.
Speculation as to how the virus will evolve in the coming months – or if it will change at all – is just that, speculation. While comments on the virus’ wanting to gain lethality or its future if it does so reflect likely evolutionary paths, influenza is not sentient and mutations are a result of chance encounters with other influenza strains. That the current strain includes a “unique mix of Eurasian and American swine, human and bird genes” reflects the randomness of the evolutionary process. This process can produce highly deadly strains; whether it does so cannot be predicted. Similarly, while the virulence of the 1918 strain was a “once in a millennium” event, this does not mean a thousand years will pass before it happens again. Much like the Mississippi basin has experienced two “floods of the century” a decade apart, once-a -millennium outbreaks can occur a century apart.
The pandemic declaration allows public health authorities to pursue certain preventive measures, including the accelerated production of H1N1 vaccine. The WHO has recommended such production, but the decision to do so has not been made. Nor have the world’s public health authorities decided whether to focus on H1N1, seasonal flu, or a combination of the two. The global presence of the H1N1 strain offers global opportunities for re-assortment – the exchange or mixing of genes to produce a modified strain. Whether this happens and what it will mean will remain a mystery.
What we do know is that we have experienced unusual spring flu, that while the fatality rate is relatively mild it does exist, and that some of the deaths have been among otherwise young and healthy individuals, atypical victims of the flu. Previous pandemic planning should continue, or if planning has not been accomplished it should begin. The risk of a widespread outbreak threatens individuals, families, schools businesses and communities. Each venue may face high rates of absenteeism, the need to care for the ill, or limitations on travel or public gatherings. Be prepared for these possibilities. Only time will tell if this is a deadly virus, and if prudent and pragmatic preparations have been taken.